Analysis of Aluminum Ingot Prices from 2023 to January 2026 and Future Outlook

From 2023 to early 2026, aluminum ingot prices exhibited significant volatility, primarily driven by evolving industrial demand dynamics alongside supply-side constraints. In 2023, prices faced downward pressure due to subdued global manufacturing activity, particularly in the key construction and consumer goods sectors in major economies like China, Europe, and the United States. High energy costs in Europe continued to pressure smelter operations, creating a fragile supply-demand balance.

However, a progressive demand recovery emerged through 2024 and into 2025. This was fueled by two major industrial trends: the accelerated global transition to green energy and the electrification of transport. Demand from the solar photovoltaic (PV), wind power, and electric vehicle (EV) sectors grew substantially, as aluminum is critical for frames, components, and lightweighting. This increasingly offset continued weaknesses in traditional real estate markets, especially in China. Furthermore, sustained inventory levels at major exchanges like the LME provided a buffer but did not overwhelm the market.

Looking forward, the future trajectory of aluminum prices is expected to tilt moderately bullish. Demand from green energy and EV industries is projected to maintain strong, structural growth, becoming an even more dominant pricing driver. Supply growth may lag, constrained by high capital costs for new smelters, regulatory hurdles, and the regional availability of stable, cost-competitive energy. Geopolitical risks and global decarbonization policies, such as carbon border adjustments, could introduce additional premia and cost pressures. Consequently, while short-term corrections may occur, aluminum prices are likely to find support at higher average levels than in the pre-2023 period, trading in an elevated range with heightened sensitivity to energy prices and clean energy policy momentum.